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5 comments about The Coming Internet Depression: Why the High-Tech Boom Will Go Bust, Why the Crash Will Be Worse Than You Think, and How to Prosper Afterwards.

1. This is a very informative, level headed look at all the current trends and what the natural result will be. And a note to all the people who decided to review it, you seem to justify the stigma that no two economists can ever agree upon anything. As Ronal Reagan said "An economist seems to me to be someone who see's something happen in practice and wonder if it could work in theory". It somehow never works in reverse.



2. After seeing MJ Mandel again on cnbc tonight, I felt motivated to send a copy of his his book to a friend. I had first read it about 5 months ago, and am increasingly impressed by how it is playing out in real time now. It is clearly written and is a natural follow up read to Dow 64000 ( I wish ), and to 'Irrational Exuberence". The book was apparently written well before the ongoing fall of the nasdaq these past months. He presents concepts on the tech cycle and "new economy" worth considering by all, and appears to correctly emphasize the danger of too slow monitary and fiscal response to the increasing tech downturn ( come on congress and Greenspan ).His discussion of the delay between the nasdaq fall and the economy fall some year or so later appears well thought out.Hopefully the extent of the down turn he contemplates, will prove milder than he fears ;if so good. If not, this book is surely an important read for investors.



3. Should the title be changed to "The Currant Internet Depression'? It seems likely. Mandel highlights the obvious parallels between the twenties and the nineties, and explains in detail why he expects why he the currant economic protections to ineffective and dealing with the possible collapse of the New Economy. His main thesis is that the currant economists, business leaders and government officials will be as unprepared for the tech collapse as the people of Hoover's time were for the stock crash, and for much the same reasons. Mandel believes the `New Economy' is more important even than New Economy proponents suggest, and that it's collapse will lead a general collapse by a few years. He suggests that it represents an economic shift of the magnitude that took place in the twenties with the emergence of personal credit and the spread of new technologies of the time. He does not claim, as his overconfident knee jerk critics will expect, that the collapse will happen the same way as the Great Depression. Indeed, this is the opposite of his thesis; although he does point out that the conservative economists of the twenties were just as certain that there could never again be a collapse. One ideologue I mentioned the work to dismissed it out of hand because of the SEC and the FDIC, it's this sort of overconfidence that lead to the last collapse and the inability to cope with it when it did occur. Indeed, given Congresses willingness to allow the protections installed in the thirties to lapse (allowing consolidation and cross pollination in the financial/insurance world) perhaps it WILL happen just the way that it did, especially if the knee jerk anti-government lassie fare radicals actually get their way. If anything, Mandel is to optimistic, especially when he suggests that Venture Capitalists are a hardy forward-looking bunch. Mandel's scenario, with tech layoffs leading to a crisis of consumer confidence and subsequent personal bankruptcies and an unwillingness on the part of VC's to indulge in risky spending to jump start the tech sector seems compelling, and not simply because it seems to be happening now. Is the `recession' really a `depression' and will it last as long as Mandel suggests? You can decide for your self, but you ought to read the book, if for no other reason than to understand the underlying weakness of a risk driven economy.



4. Mandel called it before it happened.... He recognized the patterns in psychographics, world economics, technology, and the road ahead. He shows that the paradigms of the technology driven society we hastily built will need to radically change if we are to continue growing. As we are all painfully aware, we built upon the euphoria of intrinsic technology while the foundation was being eroded by weak (to non-existent) earnings and fundamental business needs. If you want to understand exactly what's going on right now and how to position yourself for the future, you will want to get this book!



5. First edition read from the library:
   
   This book is not as good as it needs to be. It does not examine technology failures and the internet and financial failure. The technology is the internet! The "how to prosper afterwards" is skant, and is just macro-economics based.
   
   This book is packaged like it is of interest to individual readers and and maybe pop-economists, but a reader would be better served by #1 reading about the real US Depression, #2 applying what they learn about causes for zero demand, current political and financial matters, #3 figuring about terrorism, information technology stability, hardware stability, human factors.
   
   This book does not serve it's purpose per the title and cover in my book.