5 comments about Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies.

1. In this very readable book Li and Bernoff draw from extensive research at Forrester to describe what they call the Groundswell: consumers using online tools to get more information from each other, and less from traditional institutions and businesses. They offer case studies showing how organizations have readjusted their thinking to take advantage of it.
   Although the groundswell trend includes social networks and related technologies, the authors say, equally important is the change in consumer behavior. Listening to (and becoming involved in) the groundswell should help your organization find out what your brand stands for; understand how buzz is shifting; save research money; increase research responsiveness; find the sources of influence in your market; manage PR crises; and generate new product and marketing ideas.
   Li and Bernoff caution that there is no single `right way' to engage with the groundswell. Depending on the objectives of your company, you'll choose among the following options: listening, talking, energizing, supporting, or embracing your audience.
   The authors define six kinds of online consumer behaviors. Learning which types best define your audience (or clients, or communities, or target groups) is the first step in any strategy you take to reach them. The Creators are those who publish a blog or article online, maintain a web page, or upload videos at least monthly. Critics post comments on blogs or forums, post ratings or reviews, or edit wikis. Collectors save URLs and tags on a social-bookmarking service, vote for sites on a service like Digg, or use RSS feed aggregators. Joiners maintain profiles on a social networking site like MySpace. Spectators consume what the rest produce. Inactives--nonparticipants--still remain.
   Nearly one in five of online consumers in the US--18 percent--are Creators. This means that a significant chunk of six of your target audience, customers, community, etc., are blogging, uploading video, and maintaining Web sites, and quite possibly discussing your company. One in four are Critics, and nearly half are Spectators.



2. Have you seen Jurassic Park? If so, you might remember Dr. Malcolm's (Jeff Goldblum) diatribe about the dangers of doing something just because you can:
   
   "I'll tell you the problem with the scientific power that you're using here: it didn't require any discipline to attain it. You read what others had done and you took the next step. You didn't earn the knowledge for yourselves, so you don't take any responsibility for it. You stood on the shoulders of geniuses to accomplish something as fast as you could and before you even knew what you had you patented it and packaged it and slapped it on a plastic lunchbox, and now you're selling it, you want to sell it!"
   
   How does this quote relate in any way to Charlene Li and Josh Bernoff's book Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies? Maybe it's just me, but I see a direct correlation.
   
   Groundswell is about social computing (I, a non-analyst, prefer the term social media) and how it's shaping not only the personal lives of many individuals around the globe, but also the way companies do business. It's not that social media is anything new; I've been an active participant on numerous online forums for over 10 years now. I've made money, formed close friendships, gotten jobs and learned countless things--all through different social media applications.
   
   Lately businesses have begun to tap into the groundswell--"a social trend in which people use technologies to get the things they need from each other rather than from traditional institutions like corporations"--to enhance customer relations, build brand loyalty and, of course, make money. These days hardly a day goes by where some company or another isn't discussing their web 2.0 strategy and taking the plunge--in most cases, "because everyone else is doing it." Or the opposite--doing nothing for fear of opening up a giant can of worms that, once released, will run rampant and ruin the company's reputation or slash profits.
   
   The thing is, as the book aptly points out--doing it just because others are doing it or because it's possible isn't reason enough to incorporate web 2.0 applications into a business strategy. Just as bringing carnivorous dinosaurs back into existence just because it was possible without thinking about the consequences wasn't the brightest of ideas, jumping on the social media bandwagon just because everyone's doing it isn't reason enough to do it. Obviously the consequences of starting a blog, establishing a presence on Facebook or randomly beginning Tweeting are nowhere near those of setting loose a bunch of killer dinosaurs; however, the underlying concept is the same: maybe you should think about it before you do it.
   
   The beauty of Groundswell is that it lays out in explicit detail the RIGHT way to develop a social media strategy. Forget just randomly tossing around a few ideas in a conference room then rushing back to the computer to start blogging or start a Facebook page; Groundswell provides hard data about the ways people are using social media and shows you how to develop a strategy that taps into your specific customers' behaviors and needs. Bernoff and Li go a step further than telling stories about what other companies have done; they provide a tool businesses can use to assess their own customers' social media behaviors in order to develop a strategy that taps into those individuals' behaviors and needs.
   
   And of course, in addition to the facts and figures and case studies, Li and Bernoff give a very comprehensive overview of the groundswell technologies and how and why to use them.
   
   In short, Groundswell is by far the best and most comprehensive book I've read about social media and I honestly think it's a must-read for anyone with even a passing interest in web 2.0. Forget Good to Great or those other yawners that every company has employees read before the annual retreat/brainstorming session; Groundswell is much more interesting, informative and pivotal to the way companies will be doing business from here on out.



3. 'Groundswell' can serve as both a great overview and an introduction to the social media trends. Being an early adopter myself, I can't say that this book has changed my view or understanding of the industry, but it is definitely a book I will recommend to any newcomer. Charlene Li and Josh Bernoff provide a number of great examples of how companies have leveraged the 'Groundswell' movement to their advantage, but are also clear that these strategies are not for everyone, and require a substantial amount of resources. Their discussion on the ROI of the social media is a great contribution, and a must read for any consultant.
   
   Perhaps not surprisingly (coming from Forrester researchers), the book offers the most to an enterprise reader who is interested in the social media trends, and needs a solid ground to evaluate both the feasibility and the strategy of their campaign.



4. I have to admit, I'm fascinated by the topic of how online communities, both business to business and business to consumer, will change the environment of how businesspeople and consumers interact, market, buy, sell etc. So I've read almost everything recent on the topic and, as those who write about this topic seem to the most seasoned and up to date business writers and/or educators out there, I have yet to be disappointed.
   
   Groundswell is the latest book I've tread, and I have to say it's one of, if not the best on the topic right now. Filled with current statistics on consumer demographic usage of social media, and clearly outlining the "how" in business participation in social media, Groundswell not only builds on the information and thoughts of prior publications, but adds insight never before revealed so clearly or thoroughly.
   
   The authors early in the book map traditional business functions (research, marketing, sales, support, development) into their "groundswell" alternatives (listening, talking, energizing, supporting, embracing) and map out both the fundamental strategic vision that needs to precede and accompany any corporate social media presence, and combine it with plenty of real life examples of good and bad methods of approach and participation.
   
   If as a business or an individual you are interested in this topic, definitely read this book. I agree with the authors, that "you cannot ignore this trend...The groundswell trend is unstoppable, and your customers are there. You may go a little slower or a little faster, but you have to move forward. There is no going back."
   
   [...]



5. It's a good review of buzz/content/wom. A little too "text booky", Jaffy's book is better.

5 comments about Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short Story.

1. First I read When Genius Failed which was about the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management - a hedge fund. Then I read a book about the scandalous rise and fall of Enron called The Smartest Guys in the Room. And now I have just finished this book about a business development company (BDC) call Allied Capital. This was just not any BDC, but the second largest in the country.
   
   The things I have read in this book are truly incredible. Many times I just had to shake my head in disbelief. This is a book about a company that made, and continues to make it appears, unscrupulous loans to businesses, if that's what you can call some of the entities they loaned money to. This book details the corruption that took place in this business and its controlled company BLX. We also learn about the inaction at the Small Business Administration (SBA), and USDA loan program in the light of serious problems with the loans they backed. What is really sad about this is the hundreds of millions of dollars that these government organizations paid out, and when their reserves are exhausted, tax payer money foots the bill.
   
   It appears that David Einhorn has spent considerable time, effort and money to bring this information to the appropriate authorities, but the result reminds me of the title of Part Three of the book: "Would Somebody, Anybody, Wake Up?" As the book's jacket cover stated, "This revealing book shows the failings of Wall Street: its investment banks, analysts, journalists, and especially our government regulators."
   
   It was a very interesting read, and I would recommend the book.



2. This clown Einhorn is a self-serving Jackass. He gets his head handed to him and his investors and instead of crawling off into the weeds with the rest of the snakes he makes this thinly veiled attempt at vindication. Maybe after he's paid $100 bucks per share in dividends on this short position he'll move on. If you compare Einhorn's value to a robust economic environment to ALD's, you'll find it sadly lacking. The guy is a parasite with a guilded tongue.



3. This is a complex story of hedge fund manager, David Einhorn, vs Allied Capital. Mr Einhorn wants corporate accounting transparency; Allied wants good quarterly numbers. The rules keep changing. The SEC looks the other way. How well the company is doing depends on who you ask.
   It takes a clear head to follow the details of Allied's accounting but you get the point. Reading about the Detroit area operations of one of Allied's investments, BLX (Business Loans Express), sounds like a Nigerian scam. The reader wonders why no stock analyst or government agency notices this or even cares when it is brought to their attention. This isn't Nigeria, this is happening in the USA. Luckily Mr. Einhorn is persistent and hopefully for investors he will keep it up.



4. This is brief history of the dispute between David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, and Allied Capital (stock ticker ALD). Mr. Einhorn details his research into ALD that culminated in a speech he gave at a charity event. Since the speech ALD has been attacking not just Einhorn, but everyone and anyone who has said anything bad concerning their company.
   
   Mr. Einhorn details the lack of inquisitiveness on the part of the financial reporters and stock analysts who gave, and most who continue to give, ALD passing grades without a serious look into the financials. He also tells of the lack of responsiveness from the federal government to stop BLX (Business Loan Express, a company owned by ALD) from bilking the taxpayers out of hundreds of millions of dollars in bad (fraudulent) loans. And for all of his effort Mr. Einhorn was repaid with personal attacks. Since I started reading this I have looked into this a bit and I have not been able to find a single credible source to discredit what Mr. Einhorn has said about ALD. Despite what some may believe blogs and online forums are not credible sources, they are just opinions thrown out for the masses to read.
   
   I found this to be an excellent book. However, I would not suggest buying it for the explicit purpose of getting some investing insights into the market. That is not the intention of this book.



5. Great book.
   Einhorn does an excellent job of laying out his bear case on ALD which, after having read the book, completely stuns me to know that this company is still a going concern. It's unfortunate to see just how biased our regulatory infrastructure is and the institutional bullishness that permeates every aspect of our capital markets is a sad development.
   Fooling some of the people all of the time is a good book and a fascinating read. I was amazed at some of the things Mr. Einhorn had to endure just because he dare speak his mind and back up his assertions with cold hard facts. This book affirmed many things that I've known about our capital markets, and many of those things are not pretty.

5 comments about Short-Sale Pre-Foreclosure Investing: How to Buy "No-Equity" Properties Directly from the Bank -- at Huge Discounts.

1. This book is a must read for anyone in this business or for anyone wanting to get in this lucrative business. With the market the way it is today, the timing of this release couldn't be better. Their book guides you step by step to empower you to make your deals. I would highly recommended this book for both the experienced and especially for all beginners. I wish I could have read it when I first started. It would have saved me a lot of grief and money.



2. - My business partner and I took a short sale seminar from Dwan and Sharon a little over 5 years ago that literally changed our lives. We have closed hundreds of deals and made millions of dollars. Trust me, they know what they are talking about and have the right information you need. This is a must read if you are serious about becoming financially independant. Gary Prescott, Tampa, Fl.



3. The book does a "decent" job discussing the "big picture" of short sales to someone that has little knowledge of the subject. However, someone looking for an investment strategy in short sales with exact steps layed out to follow and duplicate would be disappointed in this read. A lot is left for the reader to figure out on their own. For example, with respect to marketing for potential sellers, the idea of mailing postcards is discussed, which is good, however, there is little instruction/advice on how to put together an effective mailing list or what the postcard should even say. Also, there is little "real life" information regarding the exit strategies of short sales. The book discusses using an "assignment" as an exit strategy, however, most if not all lenders will not approve purchase contracts that have an assignable clause included. Therefore, this exit strategy is not effective. The book briefly discusses "subject to" transactions and fails to mention that when taking title to property "subject to" an existing mortgage staying in place, this is a direct violation of the "due on sale" clause, in which the original lender now has the right to call the loan due in full. In my opinion, this is another example of how the book lacks certain information that a reader should be told.



4. Somewhat disapointed in that the book promises downloadable forms, that can be customized.
   
   I have tried to use these forms, maybe someone else knows more?
   
   I have e mailed the IEU, and the Webmaster, and get no responce.
   
   Most of the links on their site also do not function if they apply to contacting the company.
   
   Gentle Ben



5. I did one of their short sale classes and was not happy. To cut a long story short, there is a court order out there in Gwinnett County, Georgia that Millionaire Mindset (Dwan Bent-Twyford and Sharon Restrepo run the company) pay back several thousand dollars as a refund for the course. They are ignoring the court order and leaving it unpaid. I don't recommend buying books from unethical people like this. Get your training from a local non-profit real estate investors association instead.

5 comments about The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition).

1. This book has some great chapters that can be used to create a good stock screen to purchase value stocks. One point in this book that I found very valuable is this: No matter if you are in a bull market or not always keep at least 30% of your funds in cash or bonds. This at least saves some of your cash if the market turns around and heads lower. Think of the Nov 2007 to March 2008 downturn. Many people fully invested in at least stock founds in 401ks (that did not sell) lost up to 20%. How long will it take the old "buy and hold" to recover from that?
   
   [...]



2. I have been reading the intelligent investor for a couple of days now and just finished chapter 4. The book can seem a bit long but it is not. The arguments are easy to understand and comprehend. Graham argues that investment, as great as it could be, also contains significant risks and for long periods of times have not outperformed bonds when considering inflation. He thinks every intelligent person should have no more that 75% in equities in best of times and should have up to 75% in bonds in bad times. It is definitely a book worth reading not only because he reaches sensible conclusions and warns you not to blindly follow pundits but simply because it gives you overview on market performance by analyzing the historical data that should be mandatory knowledge for everyone serious about investing.



3. Having being for some time a small investor with mixed results I was trying to learn more about the dynamics of the stock market. Benjamim Graham makes an excellent case for value investing which distinguishes true investors from speculators. It is as actual today (if not more then) as it was first written several decades ago. If you only read one book about stocks, be sure you pick this one. Highly recommended!



4. Whether you are an investor or speculator, this book provides more detailed information than any book I have read. To get the most from this book, one must be willing to devote time to absorb what the author is writing about. As it is a rather large book, it is easy to put aside; however if one is serious about the "market" the vital information is available in this book. I firmly believe if one will read and understand this information, your financial program will benefit. Sam Harris



5. Simple like that: if you are a layman investor and don't want to lose a dime, stop your investment actions right now and start reading this book immediately.
   
   I've started composing my stock portfolio a couple of months, before reading this book. At that time, I didn't know any of the Graham's wise lessons and took many decisions, some Graham-complying ones and some not. After six months, all bets on companies in a strong financial position, with a dividend payment history of more than 20 years, offering shares with a discount as consequence of the market fluctuation, and so on, proved to be right, even during crisis time.
   
   A must read book for anyone aspiring to be a fraction of what a true investor is.

5 comments about Stop the 401(k) Rip-off!: Eliminate Costly Hidden Fees to Improve Your Life.

1. Hidden fees are a drag on your wealth accumulation and retirement goals. To have a better and richer retirement, read this book. Share it with your boss and your H/R department. Don't accept over priced 401(k)'s -- fight back!



2. As David points out in his book, employees should know about the fees and conflicts of interest regarding the investment choices in their 401(k) plans. There continues to be a lack of education for participants with regard to the investment assets within qualified retirement plans. It's not easy for people to know about potential conflicts of interest pertaining to the investment options available through 401(k) plans.
   
   Readers of this book can make more informed decisions about the investment options selected when they know how to evaluate, among other things, the disclosures mutual fund companies provide about their fees and conflicts of interest.
   
   Another logical solution to the lack of information about 401(k)'s and other qualified plans is for people to augment their education by reading books such as David's or by obtaining specific investment advice provided by a qualified fiduciary advisor.
   
   I recommend this book which should help people better understand the financial products they are invested in and the services they receive in order for them to reach their retirement objectives.
   
   Bill Griffith, Jr., CFP / Author of Securing a Retirement Income for Life



3. I am surprised that the book got so many five star reviews. There is nothing mentioned in the book that a somewhat experienced investor will not know. I am all for bringing light to anything about investing though.



4. What an incredible book! So many people invest in retirement programs. So many companies offer these programs. Sadly, very few people or companies negotiate well or know where to start. I found this book very helpful and a special discovery to the process of reviewing a company's retirement plan.



5. My name is Matthew Hutcheson. I'm an independent pension fiduciary, and have studied retirement plan economics for over fifteen years. Every American worker with a 401(k) (or a 403(b)/457 for that matter) should put this book on the top of their reading list. The information contained in this book could be worth many thousands of extra retirement dollars to you down the road. Mr. Loeper should be congratulated on one of the most important and practical retirement books of the decade.

5 comments about The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

1. Taleb could use a good editor, no doubt about it. Taleb's writing can be very entertaining and informative when he does not distract and annoy the reader with childish throwaway asides. On the other hand, these asides act as road-signs: When you find one aside too many, just skip the rest of the chapter because it is of no major consequence. When Taleb takes to his subject, he writes like an adult. :)
   
   The subject matter, which could have been covered in fewer pages, is about the fact that the normal or bell curve does not represent reality in many cases and in these instances predictions based on a normal distribution will be wildly wrong. I found particularly helpful some pointers about our understanding of issues like "evidence" which may or may not prove your assumptions and "randomness" (not what you learn in a casino) which may be Gaussian or not.
   
   The rest of the book is dedicated to various subjects such as the history of the Levant, not to be confused with the Middle East; a diatribe against the Nobel prize for economics; the academic pecking order; Taleb's travelogue including Rome, Paris, Sidney, Boston; and praises for philosophers and mathematicians Taleb happens to like including Mandelbrot and Poincare.
   
   The reason for reading this book, if you are an investor, is to make sure you adapt your portfolio to the reality of Black Swans and avoid wrong assumptions and bad theories such as MPT, Black-Scholes, and Efficient Markets. If you are not highly leveraged then Black Swans will be less traumatic for your portfolio. Maybe Taleb should have railed against excessive leverage.
   
   While Taleb does mention his dumbbell style of investing, don't expect to find an investing tutorial. He provides some clues but you will have to create your own unique style of harnessing good Black Swans and avoiding the bad ones.



2. The author, I think, is one of the great thinkers of our time. I enjoyed his work. On YouTube, there is a long interview of Mr. Taleb by an old guy. It was a disaster in that the interviewer has almost no knowledge about what what Taleb was talking about (including chaos, ...) and consistently interrupts and makes annoying noises. Therefore, I could only partially tell what Taleb was trying to say and I knew it was something important. Being unable to completely hear and see what Taleb attempted to say, I bought his book. Anyhow, it is not a technical book, it's fun with lots of history knowledge and intriging to read. I recommended it to many friends already.



3. The research based information on the psychology of marketing, buying and selling that are described in the first two chapters are little known, facinating and extremely useful for those at many levels. Detailed discussions of "decoys" in marketing products, the relative comparisons involved in almost all buying decisions and the incredible effects of "free" merchandise such as Amazon's free shipping are given in an interesting and engaging way. After that the impact and interest of the information declines with each chapter and by chapter 7 it is hard to tell what the focus of the book (audio) is. A guess would be that after chapter three it just goes on to whatever the author found interesting and researched.



4. Nicholas Taleb has seemingly spent his entire life chasing what he refers to as the black swan. A series of highly improbable events that have continuously shaped the course of human history. He presents his description of this phenomenon in what might be termed an autobiographical manifesto of sorts, the exhaustive and seemingly endlessly referenced book, "The Black Swan -- The Impact of the Highly Improbable". It's not that Taleb isn't onto something, or hasn't written a thought provoking book, he has. But Taleb has not given us a black swan. He has given us a Red Herring. He has taken a small piece of stinky fish and dragged it in the dirt perpendicular to the path we are on. There is a small benefit, if we leave our path momentarily to gain a new perspective, new insights will emerge, but that is all our feeble brains can comprehend, and nothing more. But to believe there are no thinker's among us who do not understand the need to search for the extraordinary and to try to link them to potential causes, that although we might not understand completely, are contributory and can indeed be rectified, is not to be an observer of the human race at all. Ultimately he is wrong about the Black Swan but he is right about the requirement for us to think outside the box. But this has been said before. Taleb just reminds us.



5. I listened to the audiobook. I think the idea behind this book is very, very interesting - life is shaped more by random (non-predictable) events than by anything one of us can foresee. That being said, the author has filled the book with several anecdotes that are somewhat meaningless (eg, the fictitious Russian author) and/or irrelevant (autobiographical details of his life) - hence the 4 stars, rather than the 5 stars the idea deserves. It appears that at times, he is trying to be too clever by half, and destroys the rhythm of ideas by being too verbose. Some of his sentences are very convoluted, and I found myself having to rewind and listen to some sentences more than once to figure out what he means by what he says. I found the parallels with Asimov's futuristic science fiction Foundation series- where Harry Seldon constructs his of mathematically predicting the future, but is thrown off by the unpredictable appearance of the Mule (=a black swan). It is odd, especially in the context of this book, that over so many millennia that the Foundation existed, why only one such even that was so enormously disruptive occurred. According to Taleb, they should be occurring much more commonly. Had this book been written better, I would have given it 5 stars.

5 comments about The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What It Means.

1. The "bad news" about George Soros is that he wants to be known as a philosopher, and fills "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets" with arcane language in that pursuit. The "good news" is that the book is worth plowing through.
   
   Soros opens with "This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression," and goes on to explore its origins and implications. Soros sees the housing bubble as not merely another bubble bursting, but also the end of a "super-bubble" that has covered the last 25 years or so. This super-bubble is caused by a prevailing credit expansion, accompanied by the Fed bailing out investors one crisis after another (creating a moral hazard), along with an increasingly laissez-faire market environment. Globalization further encouraged the super-bubble as the U.S. (via IMF and World Bank positions) forced developing nations to adhere to cyclical policies while bending the rules for itself - thus creating a higher-yielding haven in the U.S. for investors in those nations. Reagan-era deficits also served as a source of credit expansion. Still another was the new financial instruments and greater use of leverage by banks and hedge funds.
   
   The housing bubble had its origins in the late 2000 bursting of the Internet bubble, followed by 9/11. The Federal funds rate went from 6.5% to 1% (7/03); for 31 consecutive months the base short-term rate was negative. The bubble was also fueled by new vehicles to keep positions off balance sheets and shift risks to eg. pension and mutual funds. Meanwhile, rising home values boosted asset values on banks' balance sheets, prompting them to loan more. Prices rose still further, etc., etc.
   
   Half of GDP growth in the first half of 2005 was housing related (includes indirect effect of spending cash from refinanced mortgages). Forty percent of homes purchased in 2005 were investments or 2nd homes. Since income growth during that period was anemic, loans required increasingly strained ingenuity to qualify those involved. Complex mortgage-protection deals reached $43 trillion (1.5% margin requirements), vs. a U.S. stock market capitalization of $18.5 trillion, U.S. treasuries only $4.5 trillion; obviously the "protection" was superficial at best. Collapse of the housing bubble is now leading to an increasingly unwillingness of other nations to continue holding dollars.
   
   Why the repetitive bubbles? Soros contends that financial markets are not perfect - in fact, they are usually wrong. The problems began in the '70s when defense conglomerates saw their earnings falling with the end of the Vietnam War, so they used their then still high-multiples to acquire other firms, creating the ILLUSION of sustainable earnings growth. Eventually the acquisitions required to sustain the growth were too large to pass even a limited perception of reality; at the same time, accounting shenanigans began coming to light, a recession loomed, and it all collapsed. Basically the same thing with REITs - accompanied by ever relaxation of lending and regulatory standards, and expansion of loan-to-value ratios, LTCM, international markets (Russian Ruble, Mexican Peso, etc.).
   
   Soros confuses his discourse with an extended discussion of "reflexivity" - a term he never well defines, though I sense he means the trend-following habits of speculators. Alternatively, the "bigger fool" theory is a much simpler and similar explanation, though not as inclusive.
   
   A brief review of Soros' investments over the years suggests he has made billions investing on the front-end of over-shooting bubbles, and shorting their similarly over-reacting down-sides.
   
   Where do we go from here? Soros believes that credit conditions have been relaxed so far it is difficult to see how they could continue as such. (However, he also admits being wrong in the past, and also sees printing more money as an option. The latter, however, is somewhat inhibited by existing popular outcries against rising oil prices and other commodities - especially food.) He also believes regulatory authorities need to prohibit financing mechanisms that are beyond basic comprehension. The 2008 market will go below 2007's low. About 40% of subprime loans and ARMs will default over the next 2+ years - housing prices will need to decline over 20% to clear the market, and government intervention is essential. Unfortunately, Soros does not comment on what would happen if Asian and Arab states stop holding dollars.
   
   What's Soros doing now? He's short on U.S. and European stocks, U.S. ten-year government bonds, and the dollar; long on Chinese, Indian and Gulf States stocks (even though he sees them as overvalued) and non-US currencies (China's in particular seems guaranteed to rise).



2. This 208 page book might be thought of as Cliff Notes for his previous 367 page book, The Alchemy of Finance, and will appeal to the same audience. During the 21 years between the books, Soros has mellowed somewhat and now describes his extreme Popperian position as radical falsification. I think he fears being called a skeptic. We know what happened to Socrates.
   
   Soros continues to refine and advocate his philosophy of Reflexivity. For this book Soros acknowledges the editorial help from philosopher Colin McGinn. A career in academic philosophy begins with critical appraisal of prior work, followed by the creation of a new paradigm with a unique language and definitions. The philosophic basis for his market insights deserves its own book which might be called The Epistemological Roots of Reflexivity.
   
   Soros defines Reflexivity as a fuzzy connection between knowledge and reality, belief and action, individual action and group behavior. We perceive reality within a context of prior knowledge. Our knowledge leads to actions which influence reality and produce new knowledge which leads to new actions. In engineering this is called a feedback loop and when the feedback gain is positive it produces an unstable system. In financial markets a positive feedback loop produces increased volatility, a boom and a bust.
   
   Reflexivity is not unique to finance and appears in many walks of life including warfare and medicine. In warfare an officer makes decisions based on incomplete and perhaps false information, knowing that any action will change reality and demand new knowledge, decisions and actions. In medicine there is an unresolved problem of patient informed consent. The physician explains the diagnosis and treatment to the patient. The patient relates this new knowledge to his reality, hopes and fears, perhaps missing some important nuances and facts. The patient's imperfect knowledge impacts a series of choices as additional information and treatment are provided by the physician.
   
   Soros dislikes the concepts of market equilibrium and probably does not support the strong and the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. His world view is more like the recursive loops described by philosopher Douglas R. Hofstadter.
   
   Soros ends his book with an entry dated March 23, 2008. The financial markets continue to unravel. He admits that his Foundation portfolio has a slight year-to-date loss. Although he discusses oil, housing, currency, Europe and Asia, he omits other commodities and countries. Perhaps Soros has a unique problem with Reflexivity. Soros has such world fame that any prognostication will surely affect financial markets.



3. I was surprised how poor a writer Mr. Soros is. He should have had someone ghost write it for him His concepts were not fully developed in an understandable way. The conclusion I came to is that his success comes more from his "back pains" than in definalble concepts.



4. Soros, the master manipulator, takes the reader on a journey through market machinations that have landed us in our current predicament, himself no doubt a shrewd but willing participant in the wild ride. However, he fails to give sufficient weight to the outright fraud that has riddled the mortgage market over the last five years. Every single excess in the financial markets over the last 30 years can be traced to corruption, fraud and outright theft. Our current meltdown? Lies on the mortgage applications, lies on the financial statements, lies on the appraisals, lies and misrepresentations in the rating agencies, etc. etc.



5. George soros brings in an unbiased perspective of impact of current events in capital markets and shifting paradigms of dominance from US to other countries A must read for global citizens

5 comments about How to Win Friends & Influence People.

1. This is the kind of book that is definitely a classic and can learn something new every time you read it. The principles of relationships, showing you how to interact with people and getting that job you want reminds me also of the principles of the law of attraction and my favorite book,Living The Secret Everyday: My Secret Workbook. In this book too you learn about the law of attraction in a workbook format and improve your relationships.



2. Excellent book. Lots of useful information and real life examples of how to apply the principles in the book.



3. The folks that reviewed this book as a "1 star" might have missed the point of this book. In order for these techniques to work, you must use a common sense approach to each situation.
   
   For instance, one of the techinques described in the book deals with finding a common interest in someone you have just met. Unfortunately, if you use the book without using common sense translation it would go something like this:
   "Hi! I like the shirt you are wearing. It's got an image of a racing car on it. I like racecars, too! Now that we have racing cars in common, will you help me with my homework?"
   Without a common sense approach, this technique fails.
   
   Another technique decribes how to speak to a shy person. If you are shy, would this approach stated below work on you? I would doubt it.
   "Hi. You seem shy so I'm going to converse with you so you can overcome your shyness. So, what's up?"
   
   The techniques in this book will require you to use your head, your common sense and your own personality to be effective.
   
   The overall message is the Golden Rule: Treat others the way you, personally, would want to be treated".
   
   Also, this is not an "all or nothing" way of life. If you use a few of these techniques the way you see fitting within your personality, they will work wonders for you.
   
   I've used these techniques and have had considerable success. I believe it was a worthy investment.



4. How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie is a must-read for anyone who desires to put the Golden Rule into everyday use. Through numerous stories and examples, Mr. Carnegie shows how we can truly accomplish the impossible---just by putting others' interests before our own. The book bogs down a little if you try to read through it all at once, so I would recommend breaking it up and just reading a chapter or two at a time. Definitely push through to the end--it's very worth it!



5. Everyone should read this book. There is nothing bad that can come from it. The stories contained are interesting and the concepts are completely simple. In fact, nothing taught here was ever mind blowing or surprising. The surprising part was the self reflection it brought and the desire it created in me to want to adapt concepts from this book I previously felt needless. This is the kind of reading I wish I was forced to read growing up and not books about a bunch of stupid kids on an island that go crazy and fight each other.

5 comments about Rich Dad, Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money--That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!.

1. I can't read this stuff. The stories are long and seemingly pointless. I tried skipping through to find the pearls of wisdom, but I never found any. One story tells in endless dull detail how he worked for 10 cents an hour when he was a kid. Who cares? Just get to the point.
   I've seen this guy on TV, and he's a salesman. He tells you, over and over, how rich he is and how smart he is, but he never tells you anything you can use. I suspect he got rich by selling these books, which tell you how to get rich, supposedly. Looks like baloney to me.



2. This book is amazing for the reason that it teaches you the way to financial independence, and how any person would start thinking business. The examples of implmenting this in the real estate are very nice, and help us to start small. A similar pattern / principle can be applied to any other business.



3. I enjoyed reading this book. It was very interesting and at times funny. I did not want to put it down. However, if you are looking for a get rich quick idea or scheme, it is not in this book. Also, if you are not interested in real estate, you may not like this book, because that is most of the author's story. When I heard about this book, I thought it would show me how to get rich. The book does not show you how to get rich, it tells the story. If you want to get rich you only need do one thing, MAKE MONEY. I know it sounds stupid, but my uncle told me, "if you want to make big money, you have to do things in a big way." You can get rich by going to school, or by working in a restaurant, or by selling cars, getting rich is up to you. Just turn on the tv and you will see lots of rich people who did lots of different things to get rich. Good Luck!



4. I have heard too many negative reviews of Kiyosaki's financial strategies to take him seriously; however, there is one aspect to this book that is absolutely spot-on. The financial messages and lessons that our kids are learning today (and what I was told in HS 35 years ago) are utterly worthless.
   
   I remember reading Future Shock by Alvin Tofler decades ago, explaining that the world is changing so fast that human society hasn't the time to readjust and position itself to thrive in the new paradigms and systems. The introduction to Rich Dad is effectively this same premise: people are being given financial advice that was golden a hundred years ago, but will doom people to squalor in the current economic climate.
   
   I will not take issue with the author's financial advice. I am not a finance expert, and the real experts all seem to agree that this Kiyosaki clown is nothing but Anthony Robbins for the cash crowd: all flash and no foundation.
   
   However, if you were to take the book out of the library and just read the introduction alone, it will stimulate you to giving serious thought to just how much really bad advice you have been given by so many people because of two reasons:
   
   1. The same advice has been given for decades and nobody wants to rock the boat, and
   
   2. 99% of all people (especially positicians and actors) know that when you open your mouth, the most important thing is to do is make your words appealling and enticing, hopeful and non-controversial. That's why nobody wants to come out and admit the following conclusion about how most people will thrive in the current economic world: It's MERCENARY!
   
   Yap about "teamwork" and groupthink until the cows come home. The 30-year job with the Rolex at retirement time is as DEAD as Monty Python's parrot sketch. Most people stay in organizations for less than 4 years today. Downsizing, rightsizing, corporate takeovers...don't get me started. "Loyalty" for the American worker is the religion of the doomed. It's look out for yourself today, don't trust your corporate pension and the only friend you have is money in YOUR bank account.
   
   Oh, sure, I sound cynical and negative.
   
   Enron. Tyco. I could go on. Spare me the flag-waving capitalistic jingoism.
   
   The one point that Rich Dad makes, in the intro, is that it's a whole new ballgame out there and the rules have changed so much that, were our grandparents alive today and had to make it in the marketplace, they'd all starve to death if they clung to the old rules.
   
   Read the intro to Rich Dad...then throw away the rest.



5. This must be one of the most controversial business books that I have read. Many criticize Robert Kiyosaki's best selling book, stating that they doubt he has done any of the things that are written within its pages.
   
   I began reading this book with an open mind. I feel that his writings are sincere and knowledgeable. Yes, he is cruel in his presentation of the Poor & Middle Class, but he is doing so for a reason, to illustrate the philosophies included within the book. He says that your home is not an asset, I can relate with this statement. Because he says that a true asset is one that provides income, although a home can be used as an asset for a loan, it does not provide income. In fact in many cases it sucks up your income through the need for repairs and improvements.
   
   I feel that people are free to their opinions, but I think that many of the people who harshly criticized this book probably never read it, or if they did, they read it with their mind closed shut and unwilling to understand the teachings that Robert was attempting to pass along.
   
   Lastly, Kiyosaki was criticized for his lack of detail in how he made his way to the top. The problem is that this book was not intended to be a detailed account of what he did to become successful. It was to open up your mind to the possibilities and opportunities that lie in front of each and everyone's face. Opportunities are everywhere and you must have the 'Rich Dad' mind set to take advantage of them.
   
   I recommend this book and support the efforts of the rich dad team.

4 comments about When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change.

1. If you find the present global economic situation to be confusing and filled with conflicting signals and noise, this excellent book by Mohamed El-Erian, the CEO of PIMCO and the former President of the Harvard Management Company where he managed Harvard's $35 billion endowment, should be on your reading list.
   
   El-Erian brings a unique perspective to the task of separating the signal from the noise in today's volatile global markets. Having spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund and the rest of his career in the trenches in emerging market research and investment at leading investment banks, he has a deep understanding of both the public policy side and the realities of global investing.
   
   His premise could not be more timely: Global markets are undergoing profound changes and the present turmoil is neither the beginning nor the end of the transformation that is shaking up investors around the world. This bumpy process is nothing less than the collision of markets in which the markets of yesterday collide with those of tomorrow
   
   The book offers analytical anchors for identifying the key elements of what, for some, have become key drivers in an unusually fluid environment. In addition to offering targeted, well written, explanations of some of the key sources of confusion and dislocation (U.S. national debt, new sovereign wealth funds and emerging, developing countries now funding the debt of the developed nations), El-Erian also provides some invaluable advice for personal investors.
   
   Given his contention that most U.S. investors have not fully grasped the impact of the changes going on in global markets and the impact of higher commodity prices and shift to accelerating inflationary trends around the world, he provides a new sample asset allocation model for correcting some of the imbalances in most U.S. investors' portfolios.
   
   His asset allocation table on pg. 198 provides an illustrative neutral asset mix for long term investors that is well worth the cover price of this book and was featured recently in an excellent article and interview in Barron's in the June 2, 2008 issue.
   
   His writing style is fluid and command of the material impressive. Like most great authors and thinkers, he will have you challenging your present views and investment positions. This book is an outstanding companion to Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment by David Swensen on the personal investment front and The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World by Alan Greenspan on the public policy front.
   
   In addition to raising the big issues, El-Erian provides a clear action plan for both investors and policy makers, a truly outstanding achievement in a field where leaders are too often focused on selling investment products rather than educating the investment public on the changes in global economic conditions.



2. I would highly recommend this book as a single source for a variety of key trends that, until El-Erian, no author seemed to be able to put together. However, the broad forecasts of this book should be combined with practical measurement and forecasting methods such as those described in How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business by Douglas Hubbard.
   
   El-Erian takes a Modern Portfolio Theory approach to virtually any investment portfolio and he gives specific proposals for how to balance your investments given the inevitable trends he sees. Hubbard's quantitative methods applied to El-Erian's vision of the future should make a powerful forecasting tool.
   
   When Markets Collide is more focused and clear than books like Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism, provides more practical instructions for the investor, and seems to lack some of the more embarrasing technical errors. I also like that the dynamics El-Erian sees are more persistent and will not be as quickly dated as many of the books that depend entirely on predictions for the next few years.



3. El Erian pulls together information from several other sources, such as The World Is Flat, and gives suggestions as to how both individual and institutional investors need to react to our rapidly changing world.
   Written in a relatively easy to read style.



4. When Markets Collide reads much like a newspaper. Interesting, but nothing you would read a second time. I generally agree with Mohamed El-Erian's thinking, but there was not a book's worth of ideas here.