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4 comments about How Will Your Horse Run Today.

1. In this book Scott claims to have unlocked the secret of the "Form Cycle". He puts forth conclusions from a study of 433 races which will supposedly give the reader an edge over other players at the race track. Unfortunately his advice can be put into two catagories: (1) observations that are so obvious that they are of no use as a basis for betting since other betters will also know about it and (2) conclusions that are just plain wrong. His "positive elimination factor in sprint races" is an example of the former and the whole of chapter 3 is an example of the latter.

   Scott is no mathematician, much less a statistician. He will take pages and pages to describe a calculation that could be written down in one simple formula. Anyone with even a single course in statistics will realize that his conclusions are flawed. Using the results of over 1000 races I am unable to duplicate his results.

   What Scott offers here is a perpetuation of the gambler's myth that there is some system that will allow him to beat the house. I doubt that such a system exists, but if it does, it is not to be found within the pages of this book.

   On the other hand the book can be an entertaining read if you enjoy this sort of thing. Scott, a lawyer writing under a pen name, certainly has the gift of gab. His bio claims he has won cases before the US Supreme Court. I would not mind him representing me in court, especially if I was guilty.




2. While I admit the work as a whole is flawed, I disagree with the first review. First off, the 3rd chapter stands up pretty well, as horses who don't work between long hiatuses from the post parade DO tend to disappoint their first race back. This 'rule' has saved me a lot of concern about returning horses that seem "dropping and dangerous" and are getting a lot of play.

   The things I didn't like about this "system" is that, compared to the initial program set forth in "Investing at the Racetrack", it was more "forgiving" in disqualifying horses, and many times failed to get rid of borderline horses whose ability times put it into contention.

   And, the Scott system is abysmal on "off" tracks. If your track isn't fast/firm.. that is, muddy, sloppy, or even "good", either go home or use a different method that day. You'll find yourself tearing up ticket after ticket, with "improbable" horses coming in first time after time if you use this method on anything less than ideal track conditions.

   On a fast track, the Scott system provides a decent start to understanding some of the many factors that go into good handicapping; concepts I have read in other authors' work, only not "formularized". I would not stop with just this one method, however, but augment it with some insight into track bias, trip handicapping and pace handicapping too.




3. after scott wrote investing at the racetrack system that doesn't work he comes out with another system book that doesn't work. well he fleeced me twice. my advice save your money



4. William L. Scott, How Will Your Horse Run Today?: Unlocking the Secret of the "Form Cycle" (Amicus Press, 1984)
   
   It's been quite a few years since the late William L. Scott wrote his handicapping tomes, and the availability and distribution of data in Thoroughbred racing has changed dramatically in that time. That's not to say, however, that Scott's writing has any less value now than it did a quarter-century ago; you'll just have to work a little harder now, because there will be some extra things to translate. Scott tries to solve the mystery of figuring out where in his form cycle a given horse is. (I'm not sure how acquainted Scott was with Howard Sartin's work at the time, but he comes up with a surprisingly-- if he didn't know about it-- close approximation of Sartin's turn-time theory as the basis of his book.) Added to this basis are the usual questions about surface and distance changes, and of course Scott's example card, where he shows how to put everything into action. Quite a likable little book, written in Scott's affable, approachable style. If you collect handicapping books, this is one you'll definitely want on your shelf. *** ½

1 comments about Saratoga: An Equine Tradition.

1. I've enjoyed looking at this book over and over. A definate plus for your coffee table.